More or Less · Topics · Episode #160
China's Lithography Leap Rattles the Market — and Exposes Washington's Two-Faced AI Race Talk
Clip from the full recording, 29:36–34:04 · download mp4 · watch at this point on YouTube
A scoop from The Information's Asia team on China's progress in deep ultraviolet lithography moves ASML's stock and reignites Jess's favorite hypocrisy: tech execs who publicly demand America "beat China" while privately admitting both countries are just going to win.
Meta’s earnings land first: disappointing, but mostly because of legal costs and severance from layoffs, with the stock down about 1% on a broad down day for the market and CapEx guidance shifting only slightly at the low end — nothing astronomical, in Jess’s read. The bigger story is out of The Information: China has been making real progress domestically in deep ultraviolet lithography (not the more advanced extreme ultraviolet, where China still lags), a key chip-etching step, and the scoop moved the market for ASML, which currently has the technology cornered, and got cited across analyst notes on AI sentiment generally.
Jess uses it to make a point she’s made before: in Washington, tech executives publicly insist the US must beat China in AI at all costs, while privately — off the record — the same people say of course both countries will end up leaders in the field, and dismiss the “who wins the AI race” framing as a stupid question. She’s impressed by her own reporters for landing the scoop, given how hard the story is to break.
Key points
- Meta earnings: stock down about 1% on a broad down market day; disappointment tied mostly to legal costs and layoff severance, not the core business.
- The Information's Asia team broke a story on China's domestic progress in deep (not extreme) ultraviolet lithography, a key chipmaking step.
- The scoop moved ASML's stock, since ASML currently has the lithography technology cornered.
- Jess: the story got cited broadly in analyst notes on overall AI market sentiment.
- Jess: in Washington, tech execs publicly say the US must beat China in AI at all costs; privately, the same people call the "who wins" framing a stupid question and expect both countries to lead.
- Jess flags this as a recurring, deliberate inconsistency in how the AI race is talked about in public versus private.
Where they landed
Quotes
“”— Jess
“”— Jess
“”— Sam
Suggested tweets
China's making real progress on deep ultraviolet lithography, a key chipmaking step — and it just moved ASML's stock
Tweet this →Jess Lessin: tech execs tell Washington “we must beat China in AI.” Privately, the same people call that framing “a stupid question — we're both gonna win”
Tweet this →Meta earnings: stock down about 1% on an already-down day. Sam Lessin: “Oh good, we can still afford the Brevel”
Tweet this →All topics · Full episode #160 + transcript · Subscribe on YouTube · Spotify