More or Less · Topics · Episode #164
Genius or Idiot? Everyone Goes Long Apple
Clip from the full recording, 51:58–56:38 · download mp4 · watch at this point on YouTube
Sam says Tim Cook will look like a genius or an idiot in ten years depending on whether Apple sits on top of every model or missed the era, and bets on genius because it would be funnier. Dave says the future is already written by Apple Silicon. All four end up long Apple, along with a seven-year-old shareholder.
Sam sets up the bet: in ten years Tim Cook is either a genius or an idiot, and Apple either a crucial company or one that missed an era. The bull case is that Apple avoided every trap of this cycle: no giant research team, no data centers, no incinerator box of cash, and it gets to sit on top of every model as the last mile to consumers. The bear case is that Apple is internally dysfunctional, can’t ship AI, and Cook spent fifteen years optimizing last year’s game, the classic innovator’s dilemma. Pressed to pick, Sam takes the pro-Apple side, largely because it would be hilarious if it played out, and because it’s quite possible.
Jess agrees Apple is very hard to bet against: her years covering it at the Journal were a loop of “this will disrupt the iPhone” followed by iPhone numbers going up, and she doesn’t think OpenAI’s device is the disruptor. Dave says you don’t need ten years: if you believe the bitter lesson that more compute wins, the single decision that matters is Apple Silicon, and the ten-year future is already written. Sam’s rejoinder is that Apple is no longer TSMC’s biggest customer and doesn’t own warehouses of computers. Brit is long too: the iPhone isn’t going anywhere and locks people into everything else; Silicon Valley sees change faster than the rest of the world. The Lessins’ seven-year-old is putting his whole allowance into Apple, mostly because he can finally afford a whole share and wants to vote at the shareholder meeting. Jess closes by conceding they are all one big hype machine, which Dave calls the best hype machine ever created and better than Hollywood.
Key points
- The ten-year fork: Apple avoided the cash incinerator and sits on top of every model, or it's dysfunctional and missed the swerve.
- Sam takes the pro-Apple side, partly because the accidental-genius outcome would be funny.
- Jess: Apple is very hard to bet against; every predicted iPhone disruptor failed, and OpenAI's device won't be different.
- Dave: per the bitter lesson, compute wins, Apple Silicon is the decision that matters, and the future is already written.
- Sam: Apple is no longer TSMC's biggest client and has no warehouses of compute.
- Brit: long Apple because the iPhone lock-in isn't going anywhere. All four are long, plus a seven-year-old shareholder.
Where they landed
Quotes
“Tim Cook is either gonna look like a fucking genius or an idiot. And Apple will either be a really important company or have completely missed an era.”— Sam
“If you believe the bitter lesson, the single decision that mattered is the Apple Silicon decision. The 10-year future is already written.”— Dave
“He's really into the idea he can finally afford a whole share and he wants to vote.”— Sam
Suggested tweets
“Tim Cook is either gonna look like a genius or an idiot in ten years.” Sam Lessin bets on genius — mostly because it’d be funnier
Tweet this →“If you believe the bitter lesson, the Apple Silicon decision means the next 10 years are already written.” — Dave Morin
Tweet this →All four hosts are long Apple. So is Sam’s 7-year-old, who “really wants to vote.”
Tweet this →All topics · Full episode #164 + transcript · Subscribe on YouTube · Spotify